What Baltic leaders think about a war they’ve long warned was coming
Gitanas Nauseda of Lithuania and Alar Karis of Estonia are eagerly supporting Ukraine — and wondering what could be next
Lally Weymouth is a senior associate editor for The Washington Post.
Thursday, March 3, 2022
Many in the U.S. government have been ignoring the bleak warnings of the Baltic states about President Vladimir Putin’s malign intentions since 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia. Then in 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine, Baltic leaders warned that he would not stop there. “The U.S. policy community underestimated Putin’s intentions,” lamented Chris Skaluba, a former Pentagon official who is now director of the transatlantic security initiative at the Atlantic Council. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, there is the threat of a spillover or a wider war, and the Baltic leaders are worried once again about what Putin’s next target will be. The Washington Post’s Lally Weymouth interviewed President Gitanas Nauseda of Lithuania and President Alar Karis of Estonia by videoconference this past week as the war in Ukraine ground on. Edited excerpts follow, first from the interview with Lithuania’s Nauseda:
Q. How do you see the situation in Ukraine?
A. The situation is terrible. This is really a tragedy to witness: The Russians are targeting not only military infrastructure but also schools, universities and hospitals. Unfortunately, this Russian regime is now killing innocent people and trying to break the resistance of the brave Ukrainian nation. We have to do all that is in our hands to help them to survive and resist. This is a moral and political duty of all the nations in the West which respect democratic rules and principles.
Q. Do you think it’s possible for Ukraine to prevail?
A. I think it is possible. We see a huge shift in the minds of politicians and ordinary people in the West. It is very important that countries which are far away from Ukraine have started to realize what sort of man Vladimir Putin is. I think we still can stabilize the situation and bring both sides to the negotiating table. It’s difficult to imagine that after such a huge tragedy it’s possible to bring them to the table, but we must do everything to achieve it.
Q. Do you admire Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky? Do you know him?
A. I know him very well, and I really admire him. He is a brave man trying to serve the country in the best way. He has become a symbolic figure of resistance in Ukraine. It is very important for people to know that he is the leader of Ukraine. We should be motivated by the heroic actions of the Ukrainian nation and help them to survive this terrible attack by the Russians.
Q. It’s unbelievable.
A. It’s unbelievable, and it’s very touching. Every time I talk with Volodymyr, he says, “It might be the last time, Gitanas.” I talked with him two days ago [on Monday]. This is really terrible.
Q. Lithuania has been providing some arms to the Ukrainians.
A. Yes, we are providing arms, military equipment, protective vests, helmets, Stingers. We will continue to do this. We’re also sending humanitarian aid, food and other things.
Q. Do you think that the U.S. should have a no-fly zone in Ukraine?
A. Yes, it would be very good to have a no-fly zone. But then we should answer the question of what will happen if Russian planes violate the no-fly zone? Will we be ready to shoot them?
Q. Do you allow a mass slaughter to take place, or do you shoot down the Russian planes?
A. The question will be, are we ready to step into direct conflict with the Russian air force — if they will not be ready to respect this no-fly zone.
Q. What is your answer?
A. This is an open question. We have to answer it.
Q. What is your personal answer?
A. I think we have to do what we can in order to help Ukraine withstand this war. Because this is a war not only for the Ukrainian people, this is a war for democracy. This is a war for the Western world to survive. We are under attack. Not only the Ukrainian nation is under attack. We are all under attack.
Q. Your answer is yes, it’s worth engaging with the Russian air force?
A. We have to help the Ukrainians to build a system of air defense because otherwise the superiority in the air and dominance in the air will lead to huge losses on Earth.
Q. In other words, that’s taking the risk of a NATO war with Russia. Is that correct?
A. It’s difficult to say because I think that all our actions will have an impact on the behavior of Russia. The more decisive we are, the higher probability we have to achieve peace. Russians are looking at our behavior. If we are decisive, maybe this is the best way to achieve peace.
Q. For years, Baltic officials have been warning about Putin’s intentions, starting with Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and annexation of Crimea in 2014. But those concerns were largely ignored in Washington.
A. You rightly mention that the first time the bell was rung was in 2008 in Georgia, then in 2014 in Ukraine with the Crimea occupation and the frozen conflict in the Donbas. How many times does the bell have to ring to believe that there will be no end to this escalation policy? We can talk only about the next stage of the conflict. Georgia, Ukraine — who will be next? Maybe Balts, maybe Romania? But we will not be the last two because the next target will be maybe some countries of the European Union or perhaps the European Union as a whole. This is the reason we shouldn’t believe that [Putin’s] appetite is limited. His appetite is not limited. This is the reason why we have to understand that as early as possible. Tomorrow it will be too late.
Q. How comfortable do you feel in Lithuania after the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
A. Our people are not thinking now about threats or risks. Of course, the situation is tense, but now the people are all on the side of Ukrainians — collecting humanitarian aid, trying to do their best to help the Ukrainian people. We see the first refugees coming to Lithuania. There will be many more in the future. We try to build all the necessary infrastructure to receive them, to help them.
Q. Are you worried that Putin could go after the Baltics next?
A. Yes, all the time we are worried about his plans to restore the so-called Soviet empire. You remember well Putin’s famous statement when he announced that the greatest tragedy of the 20th century was the collapse of the Soviet Union. All his actions in recent years are an attempt to restore the Soviet Union. The Baltic countries regained their independence 30 years ago. We successfully entered the European Union and NATO in 2004. We were lucky. The Ukrainians are not so lucky because they only intend to be a full-fledged member of the European Union and maybe NATO in the future. This is the reason why we feel much safer.
We try to do our best to increase our defense spending, which will be close to 2.5 percent of our GDP this year. And we have a plan to increase defense spending in the future. We are working closely with our allies in NATO. Putin achieved unity of NATO, unity of the European Union.
Q. Are you worried about a spillover effect from Ukraine? A wider war?
A. Of course it might be the case. No one has a guarantee that Russia’s imperial appetite will [stop with Ukraine]. Who will be next? No one knows. This is important to understand — that there is no end. Putin’s ambitions are unlimited. The earlier we will stop them, the better it will be for us, and the better it will be for Russia, too. Because Russia will suffer. Russia will pay a very high price for this military intervention. It is already paying this price [thanks to] the recent decisions to impose sanctions on and isolate Russia.
Q. What would you like the U.S. and NATO to do for your country and for the other Baltic countries now? NATO has stationed rotational troops there. Would you like more troops?
A. Yes, we are asking our strongest ally in NATO, the United States, to increase its presence in Lithuania.
Q. Are you asking for permanent U.S. troops to be stationed in Lithuania?
A. Yes, we are asking for a permanent presence here.
Q. And for basing?
A. Yes.
Q. Are you worried that Putin might try to force NATO to withdraw its forces from the Baltic states if he were to be successful in Ukraine?
A. I think he would dream about it, but I think that it will not happen because our allies say that Article 5 [of the NATO treaty] and their obligations to the Baltic states are ironclad. This is the reason we feel safe. I don’t think that NATO as an organization will be intimidated by the Russians.
Q. Do you think that Putin will actually use nuclear weapons?
A. I don’t believe so. This is an effort to intimidate us. He did it many times in the past. Probably this intimidation shows that he is becoming nervous. The military action against Ukraine is not as successful as it was planned before. He is also very nervous about the economic sanctions. Those sanctions are really painful, and they will bring very material losses to the Russian economy — and those losses will increase in the future.
With Estonia’s President Karas:
Q. How do you see the situation in Ukraine?
A. It’s terrifying. It’s a criminal war that’s happening now in Ukraine.
Q. Do you think there’s any hope that Putin will stop his attack on Ukraine?
A. We have to make him stop. He probably won’t stop himself. I’m not quite sure how much information he has about what is actually happening, what kind of resistance the Ukrainians are giving to the Russian troops. Putin didn’t expect the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He was probably expecting that he would take Kyiv in two days and that would be it, but it didn’t happen. The second thing [he didn’t expect] is the unity of the NATO allies as well as the European Union and the rest of the world. What we see now is bombs falling down on apartments, causing dozens of civilian causalities including children. This is something that makes it criminal.
Q. Do you think Putin can claim victory, or will he continue the war?
A. It’s difficult to guess. As I said, we hope we will stop it. Countries like Estonia have given antitank Javelin missiles and also helmets, fuel and bulletproof vests. I called Zelensky on Feb. 24, the day the invasion started, and asked what he needed. He gave me a list of what he wanted to have. I was in Ukraine two days before the start of the war. Even Zelensky didn’t expect Russian troops would attack Kyiv or that this kind of war would happen.
Q. He’s been magnificent, though, don’t you think?
A. Yes, absolutely. He was offered to go away from Ukraine, but he stayed, and he’s really a “President,” with a capital letter.
Q. Of course, they’re going to try to kill him.
A. That’s true, but I don’t think it will happen. We will see.
Q. Do you think the U.S. is doing all it can, or should it do more?
A. I think that the U.S., NATO and other allies have been doing a lot. We do have NATO troops here. The United Kingdom even agreed to double its presence here in Estonia. This is something which is quite opposite from what Putin was expecting. What we propose is that these troops stay here on a permanent basis rather than a temporary basis. This is the deterrence we need. Because sanctions alone aren’t enough. We need something more. Hopefully Putin’s not going to test NATO — because it’s not only Estonia we’re talking about, we’re talking about NATO.
Q. Where do you think Putin would go next if he were to succeed in Ukraine?
A. Hopefully he doesn’t succeed in Ukraine. But even if he does, he can’t stay in Ukraine. He doesn’t have enough military power or economic resources. The war might last long, but at some point, he will have to go back to Russia with his military forces.
Q. The Baltic leaders have been observing Putin and warning Washington officials for years that he would not stop at Georgia or Crimea. But U.S. officials didn’t want to hear it, and they didn’t see Russia as a major national security threat.
A. It’s not only Washington. The whole Western world was a bit naive in that sense. We do have experience from the past, and that’s why we are quite cautious and able to read between the lines. Now the whole Western world does understand what kind of president Putin is. It took a while, I agree. Luckily now it’s a different situation.
Q. Unless a no-fly zone is implemented, how will Putin be stopped?
A. You probably understand what that means: It means the Western world is going into a war with Russia, and that means NATO is not a defensive organization anymore. This is against our understanding of what NATO is.
Q. So that just can’t happen?
A. We need an agreement, but at the moment I don’t see it.
Q. Do you think by accident there could be a NATO-Russia war?
A. It’s difficult to predict. Hopefully not. We don’t want this war to escalate. Hopefully it will stop.
Q. Are meaningful negotiations possible?
A. What can one do? You have to keep the dialogue [open] to stop the war. You have to use all the means.
Q. Do you think there is a danger of a wider war, a spillover?
A. I hope not.
Q. Since Belarus has become a Russian satellite state, how does that affect the eastern flank of NATO?
A. I guess there is going to be a clear border between the Western world and the so-called Russian empire.
Q. Rumors are circulating in Washington that Putin is a changed person. People who have seen him are saying that he’s not the same person. Do you believe that?
A. I haven’t met Putin, but how he behaves … well, it’s madness.
Q. Putin threatened Sweden and Finland against joining NATO.
A. Putin has threatened everybody, basically. It’s what he does. But our partners Finland and Sweden are thinking about joining NATO.
Q. Would that be good for Estonia and the other Baltic countries?
A. It’s good, of course. If they decide to join, we are for it.
Q. What would you like to see the United States do for your country now?
A. Continue to support Ukraine and also to support NATO allies in Europe, including Estonia.
Q. What do you want regarding troop deployments? Do you feel you need more troops?
A. I guess we do need more troops in Europe, especially on NATO’s eastern flank.
Q. Would you like U.S. troops stationed in Estonia on a permanent basis?
A. We’ve discussed this, yes. It probably is going to happen in the coming months or years.
Q. Would you feel more secure if U.S. troops were stationed here on a permanent basis?
A. Of course I would, yes.
Q. What did you think of Putin’s putting his nuclear weapons on “special combat readiness”?
A. This is madness. This is all I can say.
Q. Do you and your intelligence services believe that he means it?
A. None of these intelligence services can go into Putin’s head and understand what’s in there.
Q. Are you worried about cyberattacks on your country?
A. We are prepared for cyberattacks, but of course, there are cyberattacks basically every day to our country and to other countries. We are prepared as much as we can be. We also offer assistance to Ukrainians and other countries. This is the modern world.
Q. What effect, if any, do you think the sanctions will have on Putin?
A. The sanctions obviously have a long-term effect, but the war is going on right now. That means that you can see the effect of some of the sanctions today or tomorrow, but most probably will have long-term effects. That’s why it’s important to help Ukraine right now with weapons, with humanitarian aid, with everything. Estonia is also collecting helmets and bulletproof vests and so forth and sending them to Ukraine. Our phone lines are open to support the Ukrainians financially. We are quite united to do everything to help the Ukrainian people.
Q. They’re going to have to rebuild their whole country, right?
A. That’s true — that’s why we proposed for Ukraine to become a candidate for E.U. membership. A couple of days ago, President Zelensky wrote an application to the European Union. Most important is to give hope to the Ukrainian people that they can be a member of the European Union. Zelensky asked me to make this happen.
Q. How do you think this saga will end? Will the Russians go home, or will they destroy the country?
A. They should go home. The earlier, the better. If Putin doesn’t care about Ukrainians or other nations, he should care about Russians. If the body bags start going back to Russia, this is not something that Putin and Russians want to see.